SHOULD WE GIVE THE EUROPEAN CONSTITUTION A CHANCE?
The constitution was finally agreed on and signed. I don't know what to think about this, but for the moment I guess I'll welcome it. Of course, I haven't read the constitution, but Britain protected its "red lines," and the way the voters rejected the Constitution in the polls last week makes the thing seem less threatening. I'm not against the EU lock, stock and barrel. I'm the kind of Euroskeptic who thinks that more integration is not needed. Maybe this constitution can turn out to be a ceiling on integration.

If I were Bush, I would use my diplomatic leverage to support the EU Constitution. I would talk to the Poles first, send a message something like this:

"I admire Poland and I'm very proud that Poland is a US ally. Poland is a country with a romantic history, glorious in its way. Yet Poland has historically lacked a certain tactical prudence. Passion tends to blind Poland to certain dangers, and rob it of the prudence to take care of its long-term self-interest. Thus the Polish constitution in the 1600s and 1700s was admirably consultative and even democratic, yet it made them easy prey for the Russians. The Poles' greatest military victory was a battle against the Turks in [I think] 1683, when they saved Vienna. The Poles did a great service for Christendom, but the empire they saved would soon join the Russians and Prussians in devouring them. Again, in the 1930s, the Poles made hardly any effort to prepare for a stand against Hitler. They even collaborated with Hitler in breaking up Czechoslovakia, and then refused Russian help, thus undermining British and French efforts to save them. In the end, the Poles fought against the Nazis with a fantastic valor which no one else in Europe would display until Churchill. But what was the use of it then? Poland is always one of the good guys, and brave and principled, but a bit too romantic.

"I fear the same thing is happening now. The Poles may be right that the European Union has a certain amount of sinister potential, and there are reasons to be skeptical about it. But by voting down this treaty, Poland risks alienating other powers and isolating itself, particularly if they do so on the basis of voting rights, where their resistance is so obviously self-interested. We fear that Poland may be making the same mistakes that characterize so much of its valiant, romantic, baleful history.

"We are deeply proud that the Poles have honored us by fighting at our side in Iraq. Once again, the Poles have shown exemplary courage and self-sacrifice in the noble cause of their time. We dearly hope that now that Poland is an American ally their history will become happier. The choice is Poland's, of course, and no decision of the Polish people will jeopardize our friendship with them. But we hope that Poland votes for the EU constitution."

Having talked to the Poles, the Bush administration could then turn to the British. Bush could side with Blair in supporting the constitution. How would this take, in the eyes of British public opinion? Bush is not well-liked, of course, and the strategy could "backfire," if some Britons were less inclined to vote for the constitution because of his support. But I suspect that the types of British who would vote against the Constitution are the types who might take advice from Bush.

What's in it for America? In my opinion, the threat to America comes not from the EU per se (what are they going to do, go to war with us?) but from fiercely hostile public opinion which in turn reinforces anti-Americanism elsewhere in the world. Also, if the US helped to bring the constitution into force, Eurocrats might soften their opposition to the US.

Best-case scenario: the EU constitution passes with US support, then, shortly afterwards, Schroeder is defeated in a landslide in Germany, and Angela Merkel, leader of the Christian Democrats, who hales from the East, and who supported the war in Iraq and even went to Washington and met with Cheney and Rumsfeld to prove it, becomes the Chancellor of Germany, and immediately changes tack in foreign policy, from pro-French to pro-American. She tackles reforms and the German economy revives, pulling other European economies upwards along with it. People start talking about the EU as the "Fourth Reich."

In that case, I wouldn't mind at all if the euro replaced the dollar as the world's reserve currency.