Tuesday, September 28, 2004

THE ART OF NEGOTIATION

Nato writes:

I never suggested we "hit" North Korea. That this apparently springs immediately to Nathanael's mind as the first choice consequence of focusing on the problem would signal a seriously limited imagination, if he really meant it that way.


With most nations in the world, our relations are rich and varied, consisting of trade, aid, tourism, scientific exchanges, athletic contests, migration, lending and investment, translation of one another's literature, study abroad programs, and so on. It would take great "imagination" to enumerate them all (so to speak). Military conflict with them, fortunately, is almost inconceivable. If North Korea were susceptible to such varied and humane influences, we wouldn't be talking about it.

Europeans, and Democrats with European worldviews, pride themselves in preferring negotiation to military force, in contrast to mindless, violent Americans/Republicans.

What's wrong with this view may be illuminated by the immortal words of Richard Holbrooke to Slobodan Milosevic (which were roughly): "I've got U-2s in one hand and B-52s in the other. Which will it be?"

This is negotiation at its best. Front and center was the credible threat of force, which made it in Milosevic's interests to compromise. Holbrooke had learned the lessons of failed UN intervention in Yugoslavia's and Rwanda's genocides, which good intentions and high ideals did nothing to stop.

It's not in North Korea's interests to compromise. It's in North Korea's interests to get nuclear weapons and blackmail us. Yes, there are more ways to deal with a country than to "hit" it. But if we can't hit it, we're in a bad position to negotiate. All those other nice things I listed, trade, aid, scientific exchanges, and so on, are either impossible in North Korea's case, or else they would be a form of blackmail under present circumstances. Much "imagination" might indeed be called for in deciding what form of payment to offer the blackmailer. But should we pay blackmail?

I'm willing to consider that submitting to blackmail might be our best option here. But 1) the blackmailer may increase the bill, 2) it encourages others to get nukes and blackmail us.

If "imagination" can get us out of this fix, I hope Nato will explain how.

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