BUSH'S SECOND TERM

FOREIGN POLICY. This projection is based on a variable and a trend. The variable is strength. The trend is easing towards normalcy.

Strength involves not only action but the credible threat of action. A credible threat of action amplifies your actual resources, because you can get people to do what you want without actual using (expending) those resources. Those who prefer "jaw jaw" to "war war" (like me) must understand that a strong leader is in a better position, not only to wage war, but also to negotiate.

Israeli Prime Minister Rabin told his policemen to break legs to end the first intifada. He was widely condemned at the time. But later he came close to achieving peace through the Oslo process, after a conflict that had lasted 50 years. He was able to do this because of strength. He was widely admired by liberals who had condemned him before, not understanding the link between strength and negotiation.

It will be the same with Bush.

Iraq. Allawi enjoys the confidence of the people and is determined to bring democracy to the country. Sistani has tremendous moral authority, and is set on peace and elections. The insurgents can't win, because they do not represent Iraq (as The Onion pretends) but only a subpopulation of the Sunni Arab minority. They just don't have the numbers to overcome the Iraqis who are fighting against the country's dark past.

The resistance is banking on a Kerry win. It may melt away as soon as Bush is elected. If not, the country may slide into civil war, but if so "our side," the Allawi-Sistani side, the CPA-installed government, will win. Perhaps bloodily. The elections will be held, whether in the whole country or only part. Whether "we" will win is a question with a false premise: we wanted to remove the Saddam government, and we did. "Mission Accomplished" was right all along. This is just the epilogue for us. It's their war now. And they will win, too. Our troops will stay on in military bases as Iraqis take over the fighting.

Iran.
Israel will bomb Iran's nuclear facilities in early December. This will provoke a tidal wave of rage at the UN and among the Arab League, will be condemned by Sistani, Allawi, Tony Blair and many others. But a condemnation from the US will remain ominously absent. Public opinion polls in the US will show strong support for Israel, and the neocons will call for a repositioning of troops in case war with Iran is necessary. After a few tense weeks, Bush will pull a Richard Nixon and show up in Teheran. At a historic summit with Khatami which shocks the world, Iran will agree to recognize Israel, drop the "Great Satan" for America, and dissolve its nuclear program in return for a lifting of the sanctions, sizeable dollops of US aid, and a sharing of intelligence about the insurgency in Iraq. Iran will also demand, and be granted. a place at the negotiating table in any future talks on Israel-Palestine. (This will be their vengeance against Israel for the bombing.)

As Afghanistan and Iraq become democracies, and with Khatami's standing strengthened by the meeting with Bush, the path will be opened to Iran's "velvet revolution." In mid-2005, massive demonstrations will erupt across the country, and the Revolutionary Guards will decline to fire on them. The regime will dissolve. A large swath of the Greater Middle East will have been opened up to democracy.

With the end of the Islamic Republic, and with the acknowledgment by leading Democrats that OBL is probably dead, the "war on terror" will start to fade out of history. This will be the beginning of a shift in Bush's reputation, from warmonger to the great peacemaker.

Europe
As with Reagan, anger against Bush will fade. Rather quickly in fact, after the election.

DOMESTIC POLICY

Economic growth will continue strongly throughout Bush's second term. The deficit will shrink because of rising revenue.

Fiscal discipline.
In Bush's third debate performance, it became pretty clear that Bush really likes spending money. He just doesn't have the conservative instinct to begrudge spending more money. Nor Congress. Nevertheless, I think Bush will restrain federal spending in his second term, for two reasons. First, it was a campaign promise, and he's pretty good about keeping those. Second, he will-- indeed, I think he already is-- getting the message from conservatives who are angry about the deficit.

But if the Republicans don't learn fiscal discipline, the Democrats will. After a defeat in 2004, Democrats would have to face the fact that the only thing they had to show for the past 24 years, politically, is the still-popular Bill Clinton presidency. And that was popular because he turned the budget to surplus, reformed welfare and grew the economy. In 2006, some Democrats will unseat Republicans in the House and Senate by calling themselves "Clinton Democrats" and sticking to one issue, the deficit. This will set the trend for the 2008 election; and the Bushies will get the message, too.

Social Security reform.
Bush will force this through with the same boldness he showed in going to war in Iraq. Once it's passed, it will be a huge political success. The elderly will soon discover that everything the Democrats said about their benefits being cut was a lie. The reform will channel a lot of money into capital markets, increasing the savings rate and business investment, reducing the trade deficit, and accelerating economic growth. But it will drain the trust fund and take a trillion dollars out of the government's coffers, which will help frighten the federal government into fiscal discipline. Bush will resist pressure for tax hikes, but many states and cities will hike taxes to fill in the gap left by federal spending.

Immigration reform.
After January, Bush will once again push his guest card proposal. Signs that Bush is making headway with Hispanics will provoke a lot of Democrats to support it. It won't solve much; immigration will keep surging; and it will be more of an issue in 2008 than in 2004.

MORNING IN AMERICA

By 2008, the political landscape will have been transformed, and America will be looking towards a new dawn. The Democrats will have reinvented themselves in the Clinton image: free-traders, budget-balancers, liberal interventionist. John Kerry's campaign will already be the bad old Bush-hating days. A lot of people who like Bush will consider voting for the Dem in 2008.