HOME OF THE BRAVE NO LONGER

The latest Newsweek poll shows Bush sinking. Presumably it's because Kerry conveyed the impression that, since we're losing in Iraq anyway, we may as well vote for the guy who specializes in losing wars. Meanwhile, I'm not sure whether this post from Iraq the Model can be characterized as hopeful, but it does help to clarify that this really is barbarism vs. civilization, including traditional Arab civilization:

Four tribes’ chiefs promised to declare a threat to the militants in Fallujah that they should turn themselves to the authorities peacefully or the tribes will fight them. At the same time many citizens in Fallujah stated that they are willing to participate in the upcoming elections. Meanwhile Ayad Allawi gave a statement about a military action in Fallujah to be taken soon.

Rafidain net reported governmental sources saying that four tribes in Baghdad, Ramadi, Tikrit have promised to destroy the terrorism foci in the city of Fallujah after knowing that the American troops are preparing a major assault in the next couple of weeks.

Same sources confirmed that a meeting was held between the chiefs of Al Hamamda tribe in Ramadi, Al Juboor in Tikrit, Al Gareer in Yousufyia and a branch from Al Janabyeen in Latifyiah to discuss situations in Fallujah, the flow of terrorists from outside Iraq into the city and the role of clerics in provoking violence and justifying murder and kidnap in the name of Islam. The chiefs showed determination to end this situation either peacfuly or by force.

Same sources pointed out that thousands of armed men from these tribes are ready to sweep the city of Fallujah, and that they have received letters from many respectable figures in Fallujah including some clerics that plead to the Iraqi tribes to save the citizens of Fallujah from the deteriorating condition under the rule of armed gangs and terrorists.

On the other hand a declaration signed by major political parties and social groups in Fallujah was distributed in the city confirming that the people of Fallujah support strongly holding the elections at the decided time on the condition that it should be honest. The declaration affirmed their support to the IP and ING in their attempts to restore order to the city, yet they said that they will stand against any American attack on their city.

Bush's "happy talk" strategy, and his insistence on continued determination, is exactly right. The situation is too complex to "level with the American people." It would require lengthy dispositions on Arab tribal politics, on the origin of constitutional order in societies, on the paradox of terrorism that the few can spoil it from the many, on game theory and the need to create the right incentives. Those who want to know can read Iraqi bloggers, or Al Jazeera, or Haaretz, or whatever. A bigger reason Bush can't "level with the American people" is that it's politically impossible to acknowledge that the main reason for the acceleration of terrorist violence of late is to discredit Bush in the eyes of the public and get Kerry into office instead. (I wonder how consciously Kerry is rooting for the insurrection.) If you look at terrorist acts in Madrid and Indonesia, it's clear that terrorists manipulate the myopia and cowardice of electorates, ably abetted by a self-hating fifth column within which finds a perverse satisfaction in defeat. This is obvious, but if Bush said it, the press would pummel him with charges of blackmail.

My great regret in life is that I was not there. Wanting to help humanity, I went and got a degree in International Development, and spent two years getting gradually disillusioned with publicly funded foreign aid. If I'd known the war in Iraq would take place, that the US would suddenly begin using its power for good, I would have joined the Marines. How could I have known? Alas, if only... Right now, I would be in the heat of Baghdad, standing with this country's brave few, rather than the masses who are undeservedly flattered by the words of our national anthem.

Read Iraq the Model while you can. He and thousands of others are willing to give their lives for freedom, but if we withdraw, it may not be enough. If Kerry does to Iraq what he did to Vietnam, the home of the brave may be... underground.