BUSH AND THE ALLIES
Add this to the evidence that Tom Reasoner's rant about how atrociously Bush alienated our allies. For those without time to read it, I'll sum up: Bush has been spending a lot of time with the Europeans and we're "burying the hatchet" all around; meanwhile, the EU voters delivered a huge blow to the Eurocracy in the most recent parliamentary elections; if, as seems likely, Britain or others reject the constitution, it could lead to a two-track Europe; which all leads to this conclusion:
In a decade or so, then, it is possible to imagine not one Europe but two. A core group of countries would be characterized by aging and sclerotic economies, overregulated and overtaxed, as well as by exaggerated global ambitions to rival the United States as a superpower. An outer eurozone might be made up of Britain, Scandinavia (two of whose members have already rejected the euro), and several of the most dynamic former Communist countries, plus Turkey (which, unless French opposition prevents it again, will begin the process of joining the E.U. later this year).
These latter nations are likely to be strongly Atlanticist in outlook, promoting free markets and open trade and being broadly supportive of American global leadership--and, with Turkey on board, perhaps also offering a vital link to the Islamic world, promoting democracy and economic freedom in the Middle East, in line with the long-run strategic objectives of the United States.
Now that is a Europe America could really do business with.
Such projections are highly contingent, but they're useful to show how things can change. I suspect America's image in the world may turn out to be more buoyant than anyone guesses right now. The widespread sense of injury by America that the world has is just plain not based in fact. Sooner or later the world will wake up to the fact that, while it was imagining itself oppressed by the violence of warlike Americans, it was actually enjoying a huge economic boom triggered by the increased sense of security that resulted from the removal of the man who was the greatest threat to world peace.
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