WILL THE VEEP DEBATE MATTER THIS TIME?

Most commentators see a Cheney win. I think they're understating it. In the first debate, I thought Bush did okay, but people's memories and the spin war have a way of re-filtering afterwards and Bush's narrow loss turned into a blow-out. With Cheney-Edwards, I think the spin war will rumble the other direction. Key moments:

1. Cheney catches Edwards in a "classic example" of denigrating our allies, when he treats Iraqi losses as if they "don't count." All the more powerful since Edwards spends much of the debate slandering BushCheney for "not being straight" etc.

2. They can't stand up to Howard Dean, how can they stand up to al-Qaeda?

Many pundits add that no matter how big Cheney won, it won't matter, because veep debates are irrelevant, and they cite past experience. But this year might be different. 1) It's an important election, so people have more reason to pay attention. 2) Cheney showed he is a great complement to Bush because of his gravitas and knowledge. (Bush is the ticket's empathizing domestic-policy guy, like Edwards; Cheney is the foreign-policy heavyweight, like Kerry, only Kerry isn't.) 3) It is well-known that Cheney is an uncommonly influential vice-president. 4) In the wake of 9/11, the assassination of the president by terrorists, or, heck, by Michael Moore fans, is a possibility that people need to take into account. 5) People who saw the presidential debate were taken aback to see Bush, till then perceived as a "strong leader," as out-of-it, confused, at a loss; which probably made them more inclined to tune in to the veep debate to see if they had got it wrong.

(On point (4), my mom, a Kerry voter as of May but who likes Bush well enough too, cites as her most frequent argument against re-electing Bush that Bush-hatred is so strong she thinks he could be assassinated. Voters of this opinion will presumably be reassured that Cheney is not only well-prepared to take over, but is probably calling most of the shots already.)

Poor Edwards. If Bush wins, he'll probably get a lot of the blame for losing this debate. His career may have been finished off last night. It's not really his fault: Kerry's record is just indefensible. But Kerry's not the sort of guy to say, "My running mate did a great job; I accept all the blame!"